{"id":9340,"date":"2020-06-23T18:16:06","date_gmt":"2020-06-23T18:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pcsrcs.com\/?p=9340"},"modified":"2021-03-11T20:39:09","modified_gmt":"2021-03-11T20:39:09","slug":"school-nutrition-news-shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-in-the-u-s-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pcsrcs.com\/newtheme\/school-nutrition-news-shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-in-the-u-s-study-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"School Nutrition News: Shutdowns prevented 60 million Coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel\u00a0coronavirus<\/a>\u00a0infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a\u00a0research study<\/a>\u00a0published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A separate\u00a0study\u00a0<\/a>from epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimated the shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom, and dropped infection rates by an average of 82 percent, sufficient to drive the contagion well below epidemic levels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

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The two reports, published simultaneously Monday in the journal Nature, used completely different methods to reach similar conclusions. They suggest that the aggressive and unprecedented shutdowns, which caused massive economic disruptions and job losses, were effective at halting the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cWithout these policies employed, we would have lived through a very different April and May,\u201d said Solomon Hsiang, director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California at Berkeley, and the leader of the research team that surveyed how six countries \u2014 China, the United States, France, Italy, Iran and South Korea \u2014 responded to the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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His team estimated that, in the initial days after the virus was seeded in each country, and before the shutdowns, the number of infections was doubling every two days.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe disease was spreading at a really extraordinary rate that is rare even among very infectious diseases,\u201d he said in an interview. The global response to covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, resulted in \u201csaving more lives in a shorter period of time than ever before,\u201d he said in a separate conference call with reporters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The two reports on the effectiveness of the shutdowns come with a clear warning that the pandemic, even if in retreat in some of the places hardest hit, is far from over. The overwhelming majority of people remain susceptible to the virus. Only about 3 percent to 4 percent of people in the countries being studied have been infected to date, said Samir Bhatt, senior author of the Imperial College London study.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThis is just the beginning of the epidemic: we\u2019re very far from herd immunity,\u201d Bhatt said Monday in an email. \u201cThe risk of a second wave happening if all interventions and precautions are abandoned is very real.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Berkeley study used an \u201ceconometric\u201d model to estimate how 1,717 interventions, such as stay-at-home orders, business closings and travel bans, altered the spread of the virus. The researchers looked at infection rates before and after the interventions were imposed. Some of these interventions were local, and some regional or national.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The researchers concluded that the six countries collectively managed to avert 62 million test-confirmed infections. Because most people who are infected never get tested or diagnosed with covid-19, the actual number of cases that were averted is much higher \u2014 about 530 million in the six countries, the Berkeley researchers estimated. They estimated that the United States, had it not imposed shutdowns and other measures, would have seen an additional 4.8 million diagnosed infections and 60 million actual infections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Timing is crucial, the Berkeley study found. Small delays in implementing shutdowns can lead to \u201cdramatically different health outcomes.\u201d The report, while reviewing what worked and what made little difference, is clearly aimed at the many countries still early in their battle against the coronavirus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cSocieties around the world are weighing whether the health benefits of anti-contagion policies are worth their social and economic costs,\u201d the Berkeley team wrote. The economic costs of shutdowns are highly visible \u2014 closed stores, huge job losses, empty streets, food lines. The health benefits of the shutdowns, however, are invisible, because they involve \u201cinfections that never occurred and deaths that did not happen,\u201d Hsiang said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That spurred the researchers to come up with their estimates of infections prevented. The Berkeley team did not produce an estimate of lives saved.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Banning large gatherings had more of an effect in France and South Korea than in the other countries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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One striking finding: School closures did not show a significant effect, although the authors cautioned that their research on this was not conclusive and the effectiveness of school closures requires further study.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The findings could be instructive to states and school districts as they weigh when and how to reopen this fall. There is enormous pressure to resume in-person school \u2014 both because virtual education has left many students behind, and because many parents of young children cannot go to work if their children are at home.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But schools worry that children could become infected and then transmit covid-19 to family members, and they are concerned about teachers and other staff who are older or particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Many districts are considering a hybrid model, with some children in the building and others learning from home. The goal would be to minimize the numbers on site to provide for social distancing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said schools should remain closed while infection rates were high, but offered guidance for reopening as communities recover.\u00a0The recommendations included\u00a0<\/a>a raft of ideas to create distancing inside schools, most of which were\u00a0already under consideration<\/a>\u00a0by many districts. Among them: desks at least six feet apart and facing the same direction, lunch in classrooms, leaving every other row on buses empty and staggered arrival times.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The agency also recommended mandatory cloth masks for staff and encouraged use by students, and daily temperature screenings for everyone. It said schools should have adequate supplies for hygiene, including soap, hand sanitizer and no-touch trash cans. Surfaces and school buses should be cleaned and disinfected daily, it said, and windows and doors should be open so air can circulate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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READ FULL ARTICLE ON WAPO\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel\u00a0coronavirus\u00a0infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a\u00a0research study\u00a0published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion. 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